Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow summary
Selon la rumeur, Buzz sur thinking fast and slow summary
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His credentials are indisputable, and he tries gamely to bring the subject to life, ravissant -- mea culpa -- I just couldn't stay interested in the myriad of data and specific examples. The book is good cognition someone really interested in the details, and it ut contain real life examples, but after 400 pages it's hard to remember them. My takeaway: Our impression is frequently wrong, and even our experience (or what we believe our experience to have been) may not Supposé que reliable as a decision mentor. So, Quand careful!
Nous of the most dramatique ingredients is what Tetlock calls “the outside view.” The inside view is a product of fundamental attribution error, fondement-rate neglect, and other biases that are constantly cajoling us into resting our judgments and predictions nous-mêmes good or vivid stories instead of nous-mêmes data and statistics. Tetlock explains, “At a wedding, someone sidles up to you and says, ‘How longiligne ut you give them?
امیدوارم در چاپهای مجدد این مشکلات مورد بازبینی و تصحیح قرار بگیرند. جاهایی که شک داشتید یا متوجه نشدید را با متن انگلیسی تطبیق بدهید. فایل کتاب را برای دانلود در آدرس زیر قرار دادم.
éprouvé/pundits are rarely better (and often worse) than random chance, yet often believe at a much higher confidence level in their predictions.
We see people everyday saying that what just happened was what they always thought would happen and they, in their overconfidence, start believing that they always knew in hindsight that such an event was plausible. (see Halo Effect)
We all live in a postmodernist, secular world now. When we come of age into that scenario, many of us learn a bit of aval. Unless this brutal coming of age makes usages hip and glib.
You can discover how the heuristic leads to biases by following a primaire procedure: list factors other than frequency that make it easy to come up with instances. Each factor in your list will Lorsque a potential fontaine of bias.
The following are some Stipulation in which people "go with the flow" and are affected more slow and fast thinking book strongly by ease of retrieval than by the ravi they retrieved:
In today’s world, terrorists are the most significant practitioners of the art of inducing availability cascades.
Our brain is inclined to produce cognitive méprise that come je the scene nous-mêmes different occasions. The effect of framing is Nous-mêmes of the prominent examples of such cognitive traps. It results in people changing their decision pépite their answer if the offer that ha been made to them pépite question they have been asked is simply reworded.
It is now a well-established proposition that both self-control and cognitive réunion are forms of intellectuel work. Several psychological studies have shown that people who are simultaneously challenged by a demanding cognitive task and by a temptation are more likely to yield to the temptation.
Will I Lorsque able to dislodge my powerful Aisance bias and allow the possibility that the person deserves some credit?
This is a widely-cited, occasionally mind-bending work from Daniel Kahneman that describes many of the human errors in thinking that he and others have discovered through their psychology research.
System 2 is the more contemplative, cognitively taxing counterpart that we engage cognition serious clerc exertion. Though often oppositional in the police of decisions they produce, Kahneman is keen to emphasize that it’s not about System 1 opposé à